Adaptive Short-Term Flood Defense Deployment Planning

Temporary flood defenses constitute a supplementary approach to permanent engineering solutions for management. However, their deployment strategy is challenge because it depends on uncertain short-term weather conditions. The strategies that later proved be insufficient or underused can have high social and environmental costs. Real options analysis (ROA) provides mechanism include flexibility in decision making adapt the future conditions handle aforementioned temporary planning. To apply ROA principles, we combined multistage stochastic programming scenario tree. methodology provided adaptive flexible decisions as were resolved. proposed formulation was applied nine flood-affected locations Carlisle, northwest England, implications of results investigated. showed there value achieved by building design defense planning under uncertainty.